Will Wetangula-Mudavadi Pact Work In 2022?

Nasa Co-principles Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetangula.The two are planning to form one party that will unite the Luhya community. (Image courtesy)

The turn of events in the political scene is taking a different shape with leaders laying ground for their future political positions in different capacities in preparation for the coming 2022 elections. The presidential seat is no exception.

Ford Kenya party leader and Bungoma Senator Moses Wetangula and ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi have resorted to merge their parties and form one political party that would unite the Luhya community especially in the coming general election.

Both Wetangula and Mudavadi affirmed that their disunity in the past is what has been robbing them of victory when everyone of them vied for presidency single headedly. They agreed to effort to make the region strong so it could not be a subordinate to anyone as it has always been in the past.

They came out to term Raila’s comments that referred to them as being cowards for not showing up at his January 30th swearing-in ceremony at Uhuru Park Nairobi an insult.

The two leaders reached at this following what they term as betrayal by ODM party leader Raila Odinga after he decided to join hands and work hand in hand with the government. Real also What Uhuru-Raila Meeting Means to Kenya The two have in the last 20 years supported Raila in his quests to become president. The two feel that it was time for Raila to return them the favour by supporting one of them in the coming election.

While their move is a positive one in trying to ensure that the western people are jointly united, do they really have what it takes for either of them to make it to the ballot and eventually coming out victorious?
The voter distribution in western Kenya as at the 2017 statistics stood at: Kakamega County-510,631; Bungoma County-410,462; Vihiga County-202,822 and Busia County- 251,305 registered voters. They jointly had a combined voter registration of 1,375,220 voters but have in the past not recorded a good voter turnout when it comes to voting (65%).

For one to be declared president, he must claim at least 25% victory in each of more than half of the counties as well as attain up to 50+1 of the total votes casted. If either Mudavadi, Wetangula or Kalonzo vies for the of president come 2022, there are very minimal chances that either of them will claim power. If the Luhya decide to fully support one of their own in the race that will be an assurance of at least four counties that whoever will carry the flag will have the victory in.

If Kalonzo is to be part of this pact in whatever position, then a number of the Kamba votes will add up to these figure. This will however be dependent on what position Kalonzo will hold in the joint pact. Read also Nasa Co-principles Have Themselves to Blame It will take time before the western communities to be united as one and eventually be of solid influence in Kenya’s electoral history.

Arguably, Raila Odinga has a huge command when it comes to voters across the country especially in the counties of Kisumu, Homa Bay and Mombasa among others that he garnered much support in the 2017 election. These four counties alone had a combined voter register of 1,432,312 in the past election. Odinga’s influence would therefore be very crucial in determining who will become president if he is to take the mantle himself or chose to endorse a different person.

With uncertainty whether Deputy President William Ruto will still have the backing of President Kenyatta as earlier agreed, Raila’s decision on whether to vie for the top seat or endorse someone different other than Ruto will equally play a huge role in determining who will be Kenya’s next president come 2022. The DP’s backyard, Rift Valley is apparently divided now that Baringo Senator Gideon Moi has also declared interest in the top seat.

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